SUN Yanhong: Analysis: China-EU relations pose significant global impact

 

A China-Europe freight train leaves east China's Jiangsu Province, December 3, 2023. /CFP 

The China-EU Summit will be held in Beijing from December 7 to 8, 2023. Currently, the world is undergoing a major transformation unseen in a century. China-EU relations are not only related to the interests of both sides, but also have significant global impact; therefore, this summit has attracted widespread attention from the international community. 

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and the EU. Over the past 20 years, the scope and scale of China-EU economic and trade exchanges has been continuously expanded.  

From 2020 to 2022, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, trade between China and the EU achieved a counter-trend growth. Total bilateral trade in goods increased from $649.5 billion to $847.3 billion, with an average annual growth of 14.2 percent.  

In 2022, China and the EU were each other's second largest trading partners. As of the end of 2022, the stock of bilateral investment between the two sides had exceeded $230 billion, of which China's direct investment stock in the EU exceeded $100 billion. In addition, as an important part of the China-EU cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Europe freight train has grown its business very rapidly since its inception. 

According to data released by the China National Railway Group, as of November 2023, the China-Europe freight train had operated a total of 81,000 trains, reaching 217 cities in 25 European countries.   

It cannot be ignored that in recent years, under the influence of geopolitical factors, the EU's attitude towards cooperation with China has changed. In March 2023, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, proposed the concept of "de-risking" when delivering a speech on the EU's China policy.  

On June 20, the EU released its Economic Security Strategy, which was  considered a new lever to achieve "de-risking" towards China. Recently, the decision of the European Commission to start anti-subsidy probe into electric vehicle imports from China has caused concerns from China.   

However, it should be noted that there is no fundamental political interest conflict between China and the EU. Both sides are highly complementary and deeply intertwined in economic fields. They have shared concerns on addressing climate change, protecting biodiversity, and maintaining effective multilateralism. In this regard, the leaders of the EU and its major member states have clear understanding. The conclusion of the EU Summit in June 2023 emphasized that the EU and China will continue to be important trade and economic partners. The EU will continue to reduce critical dependencies and vulnerabilities but does not intend to decouple from China.  

Since the end of 2022, there have been frequent visits and interactions between high-level leaders of China and the EU, and the political relationship between both sides has clearly rebounded after experiencing a three-year trough. In 2023, face-to-face exchanges between two sides in the areas of economy, trade, digital, and the environment have once again resumed.  

At the 10th China-EU High-level Economic and Trade Dialogue on September 25, 2023, the two sides reached a series of outcomes and consensus. The new developments indicate that although there is a gap in views between China and the EU on bilateral relations, both sides have strong desires to strengthen dialogue and cooperation and are committed to establishing and improving mechanisms of communications, aiming to effectively control differences and contradictions. This will provide guarantees for both sides to seek common ground while reserving differences to the greatest extent possible and strengthen practical cooperation.   

China is the largest developing country, while the EU is a collection of developed countries, with their combined GDP accounting for 34 percent of the world's total in 2022. Therefore, maintaining and deepening economic and trade exchanges between China and the EU is not only conducive to promoting their respective economic recovery, but will also help the world economy to overcome the downturn as soon as possible.   

In addition, both China and the EU have proposed carbon neutrality goals, and are working together to promote green transformation. This will effectively lead the whole mankind in addressing the global challenge of climate change. Finally, the current geopolitical situation is complex and ever-changing, with the prolonged Ukraine crisis and the serious humanitarian disaster caused by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Strengthening communication and consultation between China and the EU is crucial for realizing a ceasefire, promoting to resolve the conflicts through political negotiations, and maintaining world peace. In view of this, the forthcoming China-EU Summit will be worth looking forward to.   

Sun Yanhong, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).           

The article was originally published in CGTN on December 6, 2023.