Illustration: Xia Qing/ GT  

The new European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, took office on Sunday, beginning a five-year term. Followed by the recently concluded US presidential election, the EU chief, now in her second term, cautioned last week that Europe has "no time to waste" to boost its defenses and its competitiveness.           

After the results of the US election came out, anxiety about the future of the transatlantic relationship quickly spread throughout Europe. European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras warned that Europe will see economic activity weaken if the US imposes tariffs, and any levies could lead to a recession. 

Looking into the future of the US government's policy toward Europe, "America First" will most likely replace transatlanticism as the fundamental principle of US foreign policy. US-Europe relations are poised to undergo a transformation in the following areas: global strategy, European security, transatlantic economic and trade relations, and shared values. 

First, the growing conservative tendency in US global strategy poses a threat to US-Europe relations. Since the end of World War II, European countries have long been sheltered by the US hegemonic system. The "defense outsourcing" model allowed European countries to allocate substantial funds toward developing their economies and social welfare systems. However, the US has prioritized a strategic contraction aimed at reducing the costs of maintaining its global hegemony, seeking to "Make America Great Again" by imposing significant tariff increases as leverage. This strategy is intended to pressure major manufacturing countries like Germany and France to take on greater economic responsibilities and invest more in their own security.  

If the US becomes less willing to provide public goods for European defense, European nations will need to reallocate strategic resources to build autonomous defense capabilities. This shift could lead to a significant crisis affecting the way of life for Europeans. 

Second, the evolving security situation in Europe amid the Ukraine crisis is testing the cohesion of the transatlantic alliance. The current European security order is undergoing severe upheaval due to the crisis. On the one hand, US support is clearly essential for both NATO and Ukraine. Without a strong commitment from the US, NATO would lack the political leadership and military resources (including both conventional and nuclear capabilities) necessary to defend Europe. On the other hand, the new US administration under the Republican Party might exploit European countries' reliance on US security protection, threatening to withdraw support for Ukraine while demanding that European allies contribute a larger share to collective defense spending. Should this happen, the "wartime unity" formed between the US and Europe in response to the Ukraine crisis could dissipate, leading to a loosening of the transatlantic alliance. 

Third, the new US administration may reimpose tariffs and other coercive economic measures on European countries. Moreover, it is expected that the new administration will increase pressure on the EU, urging them to align with US policy toward China and encouraging full economic decoupling from China. These measures could result in significant economic losses for European nations, sparking a new round of economic disputes between the US and Europe. 

Fourth, the results of the US presidential election have triggered concerns about values among European countries. Even before the election results were announced, European political elites were generally worried that if the Republican Party regained power, democratic norms would continue to decline, possibly in an irreversible manner. At the same time, there are concerns about the impact on the international order; the potential return of an "America First" foreign policy could embolden populist leaders in Europe and elsewhere, leading to a new wave of "populist backlash" worldwide. 

The new US government's adjustments to its European policies will inevitably bring greater uncertainties to US-Europe relations, and this transatlantic partnership may enter a challenging phase.

Xu Ruojie, assistant research fellow at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). 

The article was originally published in Global Times on December 2, 2024. The article has been authorized.