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ZHAO Yongsheng: Beijing must make sure its countermeasures in the S. China Sea dispute are sustainable

ZHAO Yongsheng: Beijing must make sure its countermeasures in the S. China Sea dispute are sustainable

Author:Zhao Yongsheng From:Global Times Business Update:2023-03-13 14:14:17

China on Tuesday refused to recognize the award by an arbitral tribunal over the South China Sea dispute, insisting that the dispute should be resolved only through bilateral negotiations. China's response is not a surprise because the Chinese government already declared in February 2013, at the very beginning of the arbitration's initiation by the Philippine government, that China "would neither participate in nor accept any outcome of the process."

Actually, China does not have to care about the arbitration ruling, which is not legally valid, as arbitration requires all parties to agree to refer the case to arbitration and adhere to the decision. Since China, a party to the dispute, refused to refer the case to arbitration, the entire arbitration is invalid and ridiculous. The ruling is essentially a joke.

However, "does not have to care" does not mean "will not fight back." On the contrary, a counterattack is absolutely indispensable; otherwise, the wrong message will be sent to these troublemakers in the South China Sea - the Philippines, some ASEAN member states, the US and some Western countries.

Outside of military means, resorting to economic means of counterattack is largely advocated by lots of Chinese experts, some of whom have even advanced the idea of leveling economic sanctions against these countries, especially the Philippines.

Others follow an opposite logic and, instead of punishing the Philippines, they propose reinforcing economic ties with this moody country and its accomplices. The former solution will punish the troublemakers so as to drive them back to the right track, while the latter solution would make them finally inseparable from China.

Personally, I can justify neither the former nor the latter. On the one hand, economic sanctions are a real double-edged sword. A small economy like the Philippines would be severely struck if China were to impose economic sanctions.

But the Chinese economy would also be negatively influenced, especially as China faces its internal economic structural problems. On the other hand, though the logic of strengthening economic ties with the Philippines accords with Chinese Buddhism's creed of tolerance, it is totally unprincipled for a large country like China to take such a step in its international relationships. 

Historically speaking, the shift from one global superpower to another superpower or another region of the world can only be realized through war.

This was the case in the transition from Holland to the UK, from Spain and Portugal to the UK and France, and from the UK to the US.

The Chinese government has good reasons to not care about the arbitration award, but China needs to swiftly strike back against the Philippines and its accomplices.

In the face of total manipulation of the Hague arbitration court by Western countries - such as the ridiculous identification of Taiping Island as a "rock" - being angry is understandable.

But since neither the US nor China is willing to wage war against the other, at least at the present stage, in my opinion the most efficient and sustainable tools for a riposte by China will be the economy and technology.

That is to say, in the long run those who have more funds and better technology will win out in the South China Sea "competition." For example, with sufficient funds and advanced technology, China can carry out reclamation and build new islands in this region.

 


The author is Dr. Zhao Yongsheng, Professor in Economics of the School of Foreign Studies, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), and vice-president of the Paris-based China-France Association of Lawyers and Economists.

Contact: jacques.zhao@163.com

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