IES Scholars on European Situations in 2010

On December 14, 2010, via TOM-Skype, scholars from the Institute of European Studies (IES) had a discussion with the Xinhua News Agency’s journalists based in Europe about the European situations in 2010. 

Xiong Hou, Sub-Chief of the Economics Department, IES, said that the European economy is recovering, but at a slow pace and with varied differences among the EU members.  Chen Xin, Chief of the Economics Department, IES, believed that it is likely that Portugal and Spain might fall into debt crisis in 2011.  If that happens, the European economy will be hit much more greatly than by the crises in Greece and Ireland, and China will also be affected in a worse way.

Jiang Shixue, Deputy Director of IES, said that, China plays a positive role in helping the EU to stabilize the economy. Without China’s contribution, the EU’s economy might be worse. He also suggested that one of the lessons for China to learn from the Irish banking crisi is that preventing house bubbles are highly necessary.

Zhao Chen, Sub-Chief of the Politics Department, IES, summarized two major features of Europe’s political developments in 2010. First, the center-right parties still control the political stage after elections took place in several European countries. Second, the ultra-right and ultra-left parties got more votes compared with the elections before the global financial crisis. This might be explained by the fact that the income gap is widening and welfare is decreasing.

Commenting on Zhao Chen’s views, Zhou Hong, Director of IES, said that both the ultra-right and the ultra-left policies were applied to tide over the crisis. Moreover, in the past two decades, neoliberalism seems to have become the mainstream ideology of the world. Therefore, Europe’s social market economy is turning towards the right.  Future’s direction will be determined by the public’s capacity to bear the changes.

Tian Dewen, Chief of the Social and Cultural Department of IES, summarized the following changes in Europe’s social arena in 2010. First, the anti-crisis measures adopted by the European governments have aroused popular protest. Second, as unemployment rose, the government is losing general support. Third, the ultra-right parties that oppose globalization and immigration have won higher approval rates.

Starting from December 1, 2010, the EU’s External Action Service (EAS) started to function. This is one of the milestones in Europe’s integration process. Cheng Weidong, Assistant Director of IES, said that, if EAS is a boat, the direction of its voyage is clear and the captain has assumed his duty; but the crew is still absent. Cheng believed that, in the near future, the EAS will not play a decisive role, though its symbolic significance is evident.

Liu Zuokui, Sub-Chief of the Department of International Relations of IES, said there were six major developments in Europe’s foreign relations: 1) Internal coordination has been strengthened to deal with the economic crisis. 2) There is a strategic shift towards the emerging markets. 3) Relations with the United States have been upgraded to deal with the non-traditional security issues. 4) Efforts were made to improve the relations with Russia. 5) Relations with its neighboring countries moved forward despite several hurdels. 6) Soft power of Europe was applied to raise its international position on such global issues as climate change and reforms of the international financial institutions.

Zhou Hong added that the EU would continue to emphasize trans-Atlantic relations and pay more attention to the emerging economies. She also predicted that non-traditional security issues will be a new threat to Europe.

Regarding Sino-European relations in 2010, Shen Yannan, Executive Editor of the “European Development Report”, said that the economic crisis provided a rare opportunity for the EU to maintain good relations with China. He believed that the China-EU relations are still fragile as there are great differences in terms of their political and cultural differences.